Africa continues to experience high rates of population growth. By 2030, the continent will be home to 1.7 billion people against the 1.2 billion in 2015. However, the UN expects Africa's growth rate to slow down a little — from 2.59% per year in 2010-2015 to 2.25% by 2030. With 500 million more Africans over 15 years, coupled with the challenges of creating a favorable living environment in Africa, globally significant consumer and B2B markets will emerge. Addressing new threats such as demographic pressure on social systems, on labor markets and on the environment, would require major infrastructure investments. Such investments would be an important driver for African imports.
Most of the experts believe that the rates of population growth will highly depend on quality of life and urbanization dynamics. Anyway, by 2050 five African countries will be among the top 10 most inhabited countries of the world where about 50% of the global population will live — DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania.
By 2030, the continent's working-age population is set to grow from 370 million adults (13% of the world's working-age population) to 600 million (17%).
Africa has the youngest population in the world. Half of Africa's population is under 20 years old (against 30 in the world). By 2030, the proportion of young people among Africans will decline slightly but will reach one-quarter of the total world population under the age of 25 years.
Managing migration, creating jobs and securing a comfortable environment in Africa are the key challenges that would face the governments for the decade to come. African migration so far has been internal. As of 2017, out of 36.3 million migrants in Africa, more than a half — 19.4 million — migrated to other African countries, 9.3 million to Europe, and 4.4 million to Asia.
Migration is the natural way of growing influence for the African communities. Diaspora enables access to all kinds of resources, as capital and knowledge, through networking in horizontal structures. For African countries diasporas are also strengthening their positions in international relations. By 2030 the African diaspora will be the key network connecting the continent to the rest of the world and the key source of the Africa's global power.
сборка Africa still plays a very limited role in the international division of labour. Except for South Africa and some North African countries, African economies do not yet belong to the global chains of labor. Global cooperation, investment, and a better regulatory environment are all required for Africa's transformation into the world's next assembly plant by 2030. Experts agree that Morocco, Egypt, and to some extent Algeria, have a potential to host export-oriented assembly industries. A food industry cluster is emerging in the Great Lakes region (Ethiopia-Djibouti-Kenya-Tanzania-Rwanda). However, industrialization is more likely to retain its cluster nature.
By 2030 52% of Africa's working-age adult population would have completed secondary education (only 36% in 2018). Investments in education not only meet the objectives of national development, but also correlate with personal well-being strategies — every extra year spent at school increases future personal income by 11% for boys and 14% for girls.
Africa's participation in the underway process of reconfiguring the global division of labour will depend on improving the quality and accessibility of education. Experts predict that by 2030 China could lose 85-100 million labor-intensive workplaces. Some of these workplaces will be replaced by automation and robotization, while the rest would be distributed globally in the new labor markets with Africa topping the list.
Also the workforce will be required locally for the implementation of housing, infrastructure, and environmental mega-projects. Nevertheless, in 2030 most of the jobs will still be in agriculture. Farming is gradually digitilizing to increase its productivity, — at the same time it is challenged to provide even more jobs by 2030.