Foreword
Intexpertise LLC in partnership with the Roscongress Foundation brought together the international expert community in order to discuss the experience of Russia-Africa relations and identify the key challenges and most promising avenues for cooperation in the coming years. The outcome of expertise and discussions was summarized in some papers distributed across wider expert communities and various stakeholders to obtain their feedback.

Following the Summit, a number of decisions designed to frame Russia-Africa relations, policies and guidelines for the state development institutions are expected to be introduced. The Russia–Africa Shared Vision 2030 Report is not an official programme or declaration. The Report does not necessarily reflect the official position of Russian or any African government. The expert team however shares the hope that the analysis and forecasts produced and presented will be used by the stakeholders in their decision-making process. In the Report we address all sorts of stakeholders: private entities, non-governmental organisations, governments and government-owned corporations, research institutions and even individuals.

Russia-Africa Shared Vision 2030 is aggregating the experience of cooperation, typical mistakes, failures and achievements of Russian and African parties in dealing with each other. The Report includes the analysis of bilateral relations, examines hundreds of relevant indicators alongside the institutional framework for cooperation. Based on the data provided, the international team of experts is developing the forecasts to identify the most promising areas for cooperation.

Leading Russian experts on Africa involved in the preparation of the Report are Dr. Alexey Vasilyev, Honorary president of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Evgeny Korendyasov, a senior research fellow at the Centre for the Study of the Russian-African Relations and African States' Foreign Policy at the Russian Academy of Sciences and others. The Report's team now comprises more than 20 experts and continues to grow. A distinctive feature of the Report is the involvement of African experts and leaders of African countries' expert communities, whose participation will ensure the fairness of the assessments made.

Business community representatives and civil servants having their own experience of working with African markets, and Russian partners, also act as the experts of the Report. Their participation makes it possible to disclose all the bilateral relations' problems and develop future perspectives taking into account the private companies' interests and objectives. Gathering proposals and exchanging experience between Russian and African contributors will precede the discussions at the Russian-African Economic Forum and Summit in Sochi.

Upon completion, the Report will be circulated to all concerned governmental and non-governmental organizations of Russia and Africa to become their Handbook for the interaction in the next coming years.
Major Trends of Africa's Development to be Considered in Shaping Policies
Environmental Challenges
Environmental challenges will play a decisive role in Africa's political agenda in the next 10 years. The effects of climate change, habitat destruction, and biodiversity loss will be aggravated in the continent. Ordinary citizens and the political class will take these threats as key problems that require urgent attention.

Environmental challenges will play a decisive role in Africa's political agenda in the next 10 years

The availability of potable water will become a key challenge to overcome for all African subregions, from Algeria in the North to Namibia and South African in the South. The governments will be investing in freshwater search, irrigation systems, freshwater distribution networks, sewers and sewage treatment facilities, and even freshwater import terminals.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that by 2030 Africa may lose two-thirds of its arable land to desertification. Nonetheless, with the affordable irrigation solutions for small and medium farms, up to 3 million hectares can be turned into useful and arable lands within the same time period (only 5% of agricultural land is now irrigated). In addition, investments in African irrigation can reach 33% rate of return. The struggle for the preservation of the area and beneficial use of the land would guide the development of the continent in the next 10 years.

Preserving the key elements of the environment will become the blueprint for the political agenda of both local authorities and communities, as well as of multinational organizations. Аccess to safe drinking water, waste management, sustainable environmental management, and agriculture, along with green energy innovations and sustainable municipal infrastructure will all be driving the decision-making.

The UN predicts that by 2030 more than 200 million people in Africa will live in areas with limited access to fresh water. The continent is likely to face large-scale migrations and conflicts in the future, and water will be the major cause for such problems. The coordinated efforts of national governments and their external partners are required to overcome the challenge.

In the next coming years the extracitve industries will continue to persist as the major threat for the growing and transforming African economies, with their corporate interersts being often different from those of states, communities and the environment.

By 2030 the new approaches, technological solutions, and policies ensuring sustainable interaction between infrastructure, people and the environment are to be introduced to overcome the existing challenges and form the ground for the future development. These balancing solutions will shape the new growing industries.
Human Capital
Africa continues to experience high rates of population growth. By 2030, the continent will be home to 1.7 billion people against the 1.2 billion in 2015. However, the UN expects Africa's growth rate to slow down a little — from 2.59% per year in 2010-2015 to 2.25% by 2030. With 500 million more Africans over 15 years, coupled with the challenges of creating a favorable living environment in Africa, globally significant consumer and B2B markets will emerge. Addressing new threats such as demographic pressure on social systems, on labor markets and on the environment, would require major infrastructure investments. Such investments would be an important driver for African imports.

Most of the experts believe that the rates of population growth will highly depend on quality of life and urbanization dynamics. Anyway, by 2050 five African countries will be among the top 10 most inhabited countries of the world where about 50% of the global population will live — DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania.

By 2030, the continent's working-age population is set to grow from 370 million adults (13% of the world's working-age population) to 600 million (17%).

Africa has the youngest population in the world. Half of Africa's population is under 20 years old (against 30 in the world). By 2030, the proportion of young people among Africans will decline slightly but will reach one-quarter of the total world population under the age of 25 years.

Managing migration, creating jobs and securing a comfortable environment in Africa are the key challenges that would face the governments for the decade to come. African migration so far has been internal. As of 2017, out of 36.3 million migrants in Africa, more than a half — 19.4 million — migrated to other African countries, 9.3 million to Europe, and 4.4 million to Asia.

Migration is the natural way of growing influence for the African communities. Diaspora enables access to all kinds of resources, as capital and knowledge, through networking in horizontal structures. For African countries diasporas are also strengthening their positions in international relations. By 2030 the African diaspora will be the key network connecting the continent to the rest of the world and the key source of the Africa's global power.
сборка Africa still plays a very limited role in the international division of labour. Except for South Africa and some North African countries, African economies do not yet belong to the global chains of labor. Global cooperation, investment, and a better regulatory environment are all required for Africa's transformation into the world's next assembly plant by 2030. Experts agree that Morocco, Egypt, and to some extent Algeria, have a potential to host export-oriented assembly industries. A food industry cluster is emerging in the Great Lakes region (Ethiopia-Djibouti-Kenya-Tanzania-Rwanda). However, industrialization is more likely to retain its cluster nature.

By 2030 52% of Africa's working-age adult population would have completed secondary education (only 36% in 2018). Investments in education not only meet the objectives of national development, but also correlate with personal well-being strategies — every extra year spent at school increases future personal income by 11% for boys and 14% for girls.

Africa's participation in the underway process of reconfiguring the global division of labour will depend on improving the quality and accessibility of education. Experts predict that by 2030 China could lose 85-100 million labor-intensive workplaces. Some of these workplaces will be replaced by automation and robotization, while the rest would be distributed globally in the new labor markets with Africa topping the list.

Also the workforce will be required locally for the implementation of housing, infrastructure, and environmental mega-projects. Nevertheless, in 2030 most of the jobs will still be in agriculture. Farming is gradually digitilizing to increase its productivity, — at the same time it is challenged to provide even more jobs by 2030.
Governance and Institutions
For the African statehood to develop, investments in digitalization of public services, deployment of modern desicion making support platforms and registers, data management systems (property registers, business registers, voter lists, industry statistics) are required. Experts note that strategies on digitalization of the public sector is the key to the stadily grouth of its perfomance. Digitilization however should not aim at cutting down the number of existing jobs but quality improvement, increase in the number and coverage of services.

The legacy of colonialism in Africa can be traced in artificial, and hence conflicting state borders and resource-based economic systems and first of all in the weakness of the government institutions at all levels.

Going by the global trend, investments in urban infrastructure and logistics (smart traffic, smart utilities etc) will become the most important destinations for the investments.

In Africa government institutions will be gradually transforming from the regulators of the foreign trade to the open digital services for their people.

Government institutions will be transforming from the regulators of the foreign trade to the open digital services

Digital technologies will open up new opportunities that would strengthen government institutions and enable them to be on an equal footing with international business. Everywhere, nations will develop environmental and technical supervision institutions, land inventories, registries, and other big data management tools. And not only for the nation states.

The role of the nation states in Africa in the chain of governance is also changing: some of their responsabilities are being transferred to the African Union and regional associations while the role of local communities in solving everyday problems is also growing. Digitilization gives communities the vast opportunities to play more roles and take more responsibilities.

But only the nation states are in the position to steer the process. The digital transformation driven by the states will strengthen both the local communities and interstate bureaucracy. For instance, new communication technologies are already giving communities more options to better protect their interests when engaging with corporations. But only the nation states have the rights and instruments required to duly protect the interest of the communities in their dialog with the corporations.

The African Union will play a greater role in the political process and in peace-making initiatives. In terms of the economy, the Union will play a key role in matters of certification, development and implementation of standards, regulation coordination, including antitrust regulation. The frameworks of the continental free trade zone, the single African market, will be gradually formed. The enviromental protection mega-projects are also the domain for AU to perform.

Infrastructure
For Africa to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals on clean water supply (equal access to clean drinking water and sanitation) by 2030, it requires $22 billion of annual investment ($15 billion in capital investments and $7 billion in repairs and maintenance). The current level is 13 bln, which is only about a half of the amount required.

The actual volume of all infrastructure investments (slightly above $80 billion), with almost $50 billion still being the gap between the minimal sustainable development benchmark of $130 billion and the reality. So the experts assume that the infrastructure construction market in Africa will record $500-600 billion of spendings over the next 10 years in their conservative scenario. But this will not be enough. With a proper support from the banking sector and development institutions the investments (and spendings) are to exceed $1 trillion (in current prices) and its return to be guaranteed by the steadily growing demand.
Investment Destinations
Going by a consolidated assessment by experts from RA Vision, infrastructure (electric power industry, urban economy, water supply, export/import transport corridors), as well as digital economy and medicine will be the key investment areas in 2020-2030.

The experts further suggest that local exchange trading systems (LETS) will integrate with banking products, forming a new economic paradigm which may be referred to as the digital subsistence farming. Farmers and local communities will be able to access digital platforms for precision farming and animal husbandry. Capacity to promote such platforms will determine the success of external players, including producers of fertilizers, seeds, vaccines, etc.

Digital technologies will also help the traditionally strong banking sector to better handle risk assessment, reduce interest rates and overcome chronic shortage of high-quality borrowers in domestic markets. Banks will play a central role in reducing capital flight, which has been, over the past 70 years, a major factor in eroding the economic outlook for Africa's leading economies.
Politics
In Africa, government institutions will be gradually transforming from the regulators of the foreign trade to the open digital services for their people.

Digital technologies will open up new opportunities that would strengthen government institutions and enable them to be on an equal footing with international business. Everywhere, nations will develop environmental and technical supervision institutions, land inventories, registries, and other big data management tools.

The digital transformtion driven by the states will also strengthen both — their local communities and interstate bureaucracy. The Internet and communication technologies are giving communities more options to better protect their interests when engaging with corporations.

The African Union will play an increasingly crucial role in the political process and in peace-making initiatives. In terms of the economy, the Union will play a key role in matters of certification, development and implementation of standards, regulation coordination, including antitrust regulation. The frameworks of the continental free trade zone, the single African market, will be gradually formed.
International Environment
China is likely to consolidate its leadership role among Africa's foreign partners and proceed from its traditional principle of non-interference in internal affairs to their careful moderation in order to safeguard its long-term economic interests. India's influence will grow, also the other players, such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The influence and involvement of USA, Japan, Brazil, Israel, and Iran will decrease or remain at the level of the past decade. The role of former colonial powers (as France) will continue to decline. Continental Europe will retain its chances of preserving some influence in Africa. In this regard Germany will be chasing an axial role in a long-term EU policy towards Africa. Among the G7 countries, only Germany may boost its influence and presence; Italy and the UK are likely remain at the same level; the influence of France, USA, Canada, and Japan will fall.

In military-strategic terms, fierce rivalry in the Indian Ocean will be of the greatest importance. The interests of China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Arab countries, Iran, as well as France, the United States and other players are expected to clash. In this regard, the above powers will spend significant resources on solidifying their foothold along the entire coast of East Africa, from Egypt to South Africa. The military-strategic importance of Indian Ocean islands will continue to rise.